2009 USA Track and Field Championships PREVIEW: Men's 5000 and Women's 1500

Men's 5000 - Minus the 2007 world champion Bernard Lagat, this is an open race. The best look we had at the major players in this race came in the Prefontaine Classic 3,000 meter. Chris Solinsky and Matt Tegenkamp ran very competitive races against Lagat, kicking home with some big names in what became quite a tactical race. In that race, Solinsky had the upper hand over his training partner Tegenkamp.

Aside from the Eugene training group of Solinsky and Tegenkamp, along with perennial contender Jonathon Riley, there has not been much action on the 5k front this year, and it is very hard to tell who is in great shape. Steeplechaser Anthony Familigetti ran 13:17 earlier in the season, but will he run the 5k next weekend? It seems unlikely - he chose the steeple in the Olympics last year - but it's certainly possible. Also to be considered are the former Colorado standouts, Stephen Pifer and Brent Vaughn. Though neither has turned in a performance of serious note yet this season, they were both contenders for a spot on the team last year, and it is likely they are just coming around to peaking at the right time.

And how about Bobby Curtis? The 2008 Villanova grad finished just behind Solinsky at the Trials 5k final last year, and looked strong doing it after a tough outdoor campaign. His running style and accomplishments mirror Solinsky's in many ways, and it is clear he has only begun to tap into a wealthy reserve of talent. Curtis is definitely a darkhorse pick to make the world team and place in the top four. However, as of today he is not entered in the meet, nor is he on the start list.

If he runs, Sean Quigley should not be counted out. Nor should Scotty Baughs. But both small school standouts will most likely run the 10,000 instead. If they run, college-age superstars Evan Jager and Andrew Bumbalough could also be threats. Jager has run a 3:54 mile already, and seems to be a top competitor in that event. Bumbalough is a current Georgetown Hoya taking a year from collegiate competition so that he can return to dominate the NCAA ranks next year. Their decision between 1500 and 5k could determine how the middle of the pack shapes up in the final.

While it is impossible to know who will run, it seems that without Lagat in the picture, this is Tegenkamp's and Solinsky's title to lose. Look for them to make a huge move with a mile to go and break the field by working together. Without Lagat, they are easily the class of the field, as there is no other American running today with the possible exception of Familigetti that could hope to stay with the field that they competed closely with at Pre. Bolota Asmeron, like Jonathan Riley, is another perennial contender, who just narrowly missed out on an Olympic berth last year. We can also not forget collegian Brandon Bethke, a Wisconsin transfer to Arizona State who ran 13:27 earlier in the year, and recently placed fourth in a very competitive NCAA 5k final.

The battle will then be on for third place. Vaughn is very unpredictable and it will just depend on the day. When Pifer is on, he has the 1500 speed to hang with anyone in the field. The dark horses of the field, youngsters Bethke, Jager, and Bumbalough, could play spoiler to veterans Riley and Asmeron. Assuming Jager is in the race, which seems likely, ex-Wisconsin coach Jerry Schumacher could pull off a sweep.

Predictions
1. Chris Solinsky - 13:34
2. Matt Tegenkamp 13:34
3. Stephen Pifer 13:41
4. Evan Jager 13:41
5. Bolota Asmeron 13:44
6. Jonathan Riley 13:44
7. Thomas Morgan 13:46
8. Brent Vaughn 13:51



Women's 1500 - This will be THE race to watch at the meet this coming weekend. Expect a replay of the Prefontaine Classic battle (an incredible race, which saw the 2008 USA Champion Shannon Rowbury soundly defeated by a pair of steeplechasers), minus the African leader and African pacemaker. The emergence of water-hurdlers Jenny Barringer and Anna Willard as legitimate middle distance threats has completely overhauled the layout of this race.

After her performance at Pre, University of Colorado senior Barringer has to be the favorite. In that race, she shattered the American collegiate record by an unthinkable 7 seconds with an ungodly kick (see below) over the final 150 and nearly outleaned leading 1500 runner in the world Gelete Burka at the line.

However, never count out Shannon Rowbury. Pre was her first race of the year, and as many have pointed out, 4:03 is a pretty damn good time for a season opener. Rowbury was the '08 Trials champion in the event, and the American leader in the middle-distances after her breakout year last season.

Another major force to watch for is former Wolverine Willard. Along with Barringer, Willard has been engaged in a duel to lower the American steeplechase record over the past two years, culminating last year with battles at both the Trials and in Bejiing for the top spot. Willard also sports a 1:59 800 meter clocking, making her not only the fastest half miler in the field, but the fastest half miler in America in 2009 - and she's not even running that event!

Barringer will inevitably be tired from a long NCAA season - but she was tired from a long NCAA season last summer too, when she and Willard snapped the steeplechase record multiple times. Ultimately Barringer will not be a better 1500 meter runner than Rowbury, and should they both run the race at the World Championships in August, I do not doubt that Rowbury will come out on top. But while Rowbury's entire training focus for the past year has been on this August, Barringer has peaked for several races, including three NCAA championships, a regional race, and Pre. She will get the upper hand again at USA's.

Willard did not look entirely comfortable in the early stages of the 1500 at Pre, but came on with the strongest kick in the field to place as the second American. Don't expect her to beat Rowbury again, but do expect her to be battling over the final 200 to catch the leading duo. It is almost unthinkable that in arears of this lead pack will be 2008 Olympians Erin Donohue and Christen Wurth-Thomas, fighting for a spot in the top five. U.S. women's distance running is turning a corner, and there is no better playground to watch that change progress than the 1500 meters. Donohue is a very smart runner who will know when to go and when not to go - but at this point it seems unlikely she will have the raw wheels to reel in Willard over the final quarter mile. Wurth-Thomas has turned a corner this season, clocking an impressive 4:03 showing at Pre.

Expect these two not to be far off the leaders. Donohue's race at Pre was nearly her personal best, and it was a season opener - a clear indicator, just like Rowbury's race was, that there is more in the tank.

Prediction
1. Jenny Barringer 4:04.5
2. Shannon Rowbury 4:04.7
3. Anna Willard 4:05.4
4. Erin Donohue 4:06.0
5. Christin Wurth-Thomas 4:06.0
6. Lindsey Gallo 4:09.5

2009 Prefontaine Classic Women's 1500 Meters







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